Hi Andrew,
You are right, Tamarindo has grown a lot in 10 years and explosively in the last 5 or so.
There are several factors fueling the growth in Tamarindo and Flamingo: more and more flights from the U.S. and Europe to the Liberia airport, the new Country Day School campus, more infrastructure and the general growth of tourism. Since none of these factors are temporary, further growth (and apprecation of property values) is certain.
Are these properties overpriced?
Probably not. If you are looking at several sites on the Internet, belonging to reputable realtors, it is not likely that you will see properties priced above market value. The market in Tamarindo is very active and not much stays on the market very long, so you have to figure the prices are reflecting the demand.
Is there a mechanism in place to keep Samara, Tamarindo, etc from looking like Cancun in 20 years?
There are a couple of mechanisms. Firstly, Tamarindo has a strong development association and a chamber of commerce. These organizations have an active membership that will keep tabs on new developments.
Secondly, the Costa Rican government is pushing Papagayo as the place for mega developments. In most other areas they would rather see development take place on a smaller scale. So you aren't likely to see large scale developments.
A 1998 law required all city governments in Costa Rica to produce a zoning and development plan. I am not sure what the status in Tamarindo is, but this will be the best protection. The community must participate in the elaboration, and once the plan is completed anyone can see what development is approved for what areas.
Where do you recommend buying on the peninsula?
This always depends on the exact purpose (investment, vacation home or building site for future construction) and your time frame. In your case you might check into anywhere that has an on site management for a rental pool. You can purchase a house or condo in the community and then earn income on vacation rentals. When the house is in the rental pool the agreement specifies how much time per year you can block it out for personal use. Also, if you would rather not purchase within a development ABC Real Estate and Pacific Coast Realty offer property management services.
This way you get to "have your cake and eat it too" You purchase the home now, then offset the monthly payments with rental income over the next 15 years. When you are ready to live here full time the property is paid for.
Otherwise I can't really offer you a specific place, but you can look at these factors:
* If a place is off the beaten track now, it will probably remain that way over the next 15 years. You can look in the relatively undeveloped areas around Nicoya and see which factors are causing that. Then you can see which are likely to remain relatively unchanged.
* See which municipal governments are more organized and currently have a development plan and for what areas. These areas are more likely to have restrictions on high rises and the ability to enforce them.
* Purchase within a large development that has a home owner's association and is a horizontal condominium. In 1998 Costa Rica passed the horizontal condominium law
Here is a good article about the restrictions.
Costa Rica Condominium LawBasically, it allows the developer to place restrictions on the development, basically much stricter zoning than the municipal laws. This control is then passed to the home owner's association, so it is almost impossible to change the type of development within a particular section of the community. The condominium doesn't have to be any particular type, so you can have large homes on large lots, regular homes or your typical condominium building and it can even be a mix of these.